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Water AlliesTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 16 | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 52.5% | 51.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 64.8% | +9.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.3% | +3.9 |
| Wind Neos | 4.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |